双语 | 美国“隐形总统”预言4-9年间中美必有一战，你信吗？

“美国总统并不是特朗普，而是班农”，虽然这只是自媒体上的一句调侃语，却显示了史蒂夫·班农（Steve Bannon）在特朗普团队中与美国政坛上举足轻重的地位，他甚至被称为“隐形总统”。而正是这个人，在去年曾预言，中美未来5-10年将有一战↓ （如此算来，当前只剩下4-9年了哟！）

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班农是何许人也？

他当过海军军官、投资银行家、不算重要的好莱坞参与者；曾任极右派媒体布赖特巴特新闻网（Breitbart News）执行主席，特朗普竞选团队总干事；现任美国总统首席战略专家和高级顾问。

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班农涉足政坛后都做过什么？

他曾在女政客莎拉·佩林攀上政治高峰时，与她比肩同行亲密耳语；在富豪唐纳德·特朗普高调参选美国总统时，鼓动他前往敏感的美墨边境；在约翰·博纳辞去众议长之职后，到处煽风点火。

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班农在美国政坛的影响力究竟有多大？

他被彭博社称作“当今美国最危险的政治操盘手”，听起来够吓人吗？先别急着吃惊，这还不算夸张——谷歌浏览器Chrome甚至专门设置了一款叫做“班农总统(President Bannon)”

的扩展插件，用以把文章中的“特朗普总统(President Trump)”全部替换成“班农总统”，以此告诫美国人民这位特朗普政府重要官员给白宫带来的巨大影响。

特朗普与班农

那么，这样一个人竟然大胆放言“未来5至10年中美必有一战”，到底是怎么回事呢？来看看英国《独立报》详细报道↓↓↓

China has accused Donald Trump's administration of putting regional stability in East Asia at risk following remarks by the President's defense secretary that a U.S. commitment to defend Japanese territory applies to an island group that China claims.

美国总统特朗普任命的国防部长称，美国恪守保卫日本领土的承诺，其中包括中国主张收回的群岛，随即，中国官方指责唐纳德•特朗普政府将东亚区域安全置于危险境地。

Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang has called on Trump's administration to avoid discussion of the issue and reasserted China's claim of sovereignty over the tiny uninhabited islands, known in Chinese as Diaoyu.

外交部发言人陆慷要求特朗普政府避免谈论此事，重申中国主张无人居住的小岛——钓鱼岛主权。

The 1960 US-Japan treaty is "a product of the Cold War, which should not impair China's territorial sovereignty and legitimate rights," Lu was quoted as saying in a statement posted on the ministry's website.

陆慷在外交部网站的声明中说道，1960年的美日条约“是冷战时期的产物，不应损害中国的领土主权和正当权益”。

"We urge the U.S. side to take a responsible attitude, stop making wrong remarks on the issue involving the Diaoyu islands' sovereignty, and avoid making the issue more complicated and bringing instability to the regional situation," he added.

他还提出，“我们敦促美方采取负责任的态度，停止在钓鱼岛主权问题上发表错误言论，避免使有关问题进一步复杂化，给地区形势带来不稳定因素。”

Widespread alarm over how the region could shape geopolitical tensions was raised following the revelation that Steve Bannon, the chief strategist in Trump's White House, said he believed the US would go to war with China within five to 10 years during a radio broadcast in 2016.

2016年，特朗普的白宫首席战略专家史蒂夫•班农在一档广播节目中透露，他认为美国与中国在未来的5到10年内会发动战争，此言论即刻引发了人们对于该地区可能引发地缘政治紧张问题的恐慌。

While the prospect remains relatively remote, experts have told The Independent they believe such a conflict would be catastrophic, throwing the entire globe into turmoil and potentially ending "life as we know it on Earth".

然而这个设想相对来说还比较遥远，接受《独立报》采访的专家认为，这种对抗是毁灭性的，将会使整个地球陷入混乱，可能会终结“世间万物的生命”。

The United States would likely win because sending China's untested forces against the might of America's military would be like pitching farmers against Achilles and his warriors, said one, but even a conventional military victory would be a strategic disaster. It would set off a global economic crisis ".

一位专家称，“美国很有可能会获胜，因为让缺乏作战经验的中国军队对抗美国军队，无异于农夫与希腊勇士阿喀琉斯统帅的神兵天将之间的对抗，但就算不使用核武器取得战争胜利，也会带来战略灾难，它会引发全球经济危机。”

Mr Bannon said war would erupt in the South China Sea in "five to 10 years". He said: "They’re taking their sandbars and making basically stationary aircraft carriers and putting missiles on those. They come here to the United States in front of our face—and you understand how important face is—and say it’s an ancient territorial sea."

班农称，战争将于“5到10年内”在南中国海爆发。他说，“中国正在改造沙洲，制造基本固定的航空母舰，在上面部署导弹。他们来到美国当着我们的面（你们知道面子有多重要）说，自古以来那就是他们的领海。”

The US and China have been engaged in a back-and-forth dispute over military build-up and territorial claims in the region for some years. In December the US said it would base its deadliest fighter jets in Australia, and days later China seized an unmanned US Navy drone.

美国和中国曾就该地区的军事建设和领土主张进行过多年反复的争论。12月，美国表示将在澳大利亚部署其最致命的战斗机，几天后，中国截获一架美国海军无人机。

It followed a diplomatic spat around then-President-elect Trump's congratulatory phone call with Taiwan's Prime Minister Tsai Ing-wen, which broke with decades of US policy. Mr Trump has been forthright about China's influence, blaming it for the loss of American jobs.

之后，彼时的当选总统特朗普与台湾地区领导人蔡英文之间的贺电通话违反了美国数十年的外交政策，引发外交争论。特朗普直言不讳，称中国抢了美国人的饭碗。

Trevor McCrisken, associate professor of politics and international studies at the University of Warwick, said that if war broke out "we would be looking, I would imagine, at World War Three".

华威大学政治与国际研究副教授特雷弗•麦克里斯肯表示，如果（中美）爆发战争，“我想我们将会目睹第三次世界大战。”

特雷弗•麦克里斯肯

He said: "I really do think that would be the end of life as we know it on Earth.

他说：“我真心觉得这样一来，我们的地球将生灵涂炭。”

"From a global strategic risk level I would say the last thing you want is war between the United States and any of the major powers because of the risks of escalation, obviously the potential for nuclear weapons to be used. The likelihood of nuclear exchange between the two principals involved is high."

“从全球战略风险的角度来看，我认为你最不期望的事情便是美国与任何一个大国开战，因为存在战争升级的风险，很有可能动用核武器。交战双方发起核战的可能性很高。”

But, he added, the "overwhelming view of most policy-makers in Washington since at least the late 1970s" favours a form of "cooperative, if competitive" relationship with China.

但他补充道，“至少从上世纪70年代起美国大多数决策者的主流观点”还是倾向于和中国建立“在竞争中求合作”的关系。

Dr Peter Roberts, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said: "America would take military losses. They would lose thousands and thousands [of personnel]. But China would be utterly defeated. If America goes to war, it wages war in its totality. They would go to this with unparalleled violence and energy."

英国皇家联合军种国防研究所的军事科学主任彼得•罗伯茨博士说：“美国会遭受军事损失，失去成千上万的军人。但中国会被彻底打败。如果美国开战，就会投入无法匹敌的暴力和精力，全力以赴。”

The US has an "overall competitive edge" partly due to technological superiority, Dr Roberts said, but also because the four branches of its military—Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force—are trained to work closely together. "It's demonstrated how it can use all those arms to deliver military victory," he said.

罗伯茨博士指出，美国拥有整体上的竞争优势，部分原因在于其技术优势，此外还因为美军的四个分支——陆军、海军、海军陆战队和空军是协同作战的。“这表明美军可以通过所有这些军队实现军事胜利。”

In contrast, China's services operate "individually" and also have less, and less recent, combat experience compared to their American counterparts. "There's a huge difference between someone who's been in combat before, and someone who hasn't," Dr Roberts said, comparing the potential confrontation to one between Greek hero Achilles and farmers recruited from the fields.

相比之下，中国部队是独立运作的，而且实战经验、特别是近期实战经验不及美军。罗伯茨博士说：“打过仗的军队和没打过仗的军队之间存在巨大差异。”他用希腊神话英雄阿喀琉斯和田间征来的农夫之间的遭遇来形容中美一旦开战可能出现的局面。

Kerry Brown, professor of Chinese studies and director of King's College London's Lau China Institute, said: "US naval superiority is massive. And if we are talking just military, then for sure, a conflict right beside China would hurt China more than the US.

中国研究教授、伦敦大学国王学院刘氏中国研究院主任凯利•布朗说：“美国海军有着巨大优势。如果只谈军事，那么可以肯定，在中国附近交战对中国的伤害比美国要大。”

"It would, of course, totally upend supply routes, however, and probably cause a global recession. So it would, no matter who won in terms of military outcomes, be lose-lose and cut against the logic of self interest of both the US and China."

“这样会彻底改变全球补给路线，可能导致全球衰退。因此，无论哪国赢得军事胜利，结果都会两败俱伤，打破中美各自的自身利益逻辑。”

Professor Brown added: "We have to expect this war of words to simply get worse. The best outcome is that the two sides ultimately compromise—China acts more responsibly, and stops its adventurism, and the US concedes it more space. The worst outcome would be a misunderstanding that would lead to real conflict."

布朗教授补充道：“我们不可避免地会看到这场口水站愈演愈烈。最好的结果是双方最终达成和解——中国行事更加负责，停止其冒险主义，美国则做出更多让步。最坏的结果是造成误会，引发实际冲突。”

被西方媒体抵制和忌惮的“隐形总统”史蒂夫·班农这番火药味十足的预测，听上去还蛮唬人的哟！不过，口水仗倒不怕，要说真刀真枪地开战，你信吗？

英文来源：英国《独立报》 有删减

中文编译：译·世界微信公众号

作者：Janet，阿狸，YOYO

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